How Rare Are Black Market Items in Rocket League?

LJC

As Rocket League players open countless Crates and Blueprints in pursuit of the rarest loot, getting a Black Market item remains the holy grail. But what are the true odds of striking gold?

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Understanding Rocket League's Loot System

Psyonix uses a loot box system where players can acquire Crates by leveling up or purchasing Keys to unlock them. Each Crate contains a randomized assortment of common to exotic quality items, with Black Markets being the rarest tier.

When opening a Crate, you first spin a "loot wheel" containing all possible prizes weighted by their rarity. Black Markets have by far the smallest portion of the wheel, while common items dominate the space.

Crunching the Official Numbers

In the past, Psyonix has transparently published the odds for opening specific Crates on their website. Some key takeaways:

  • Opening a Player's Choice Crate gave a 0.5% chance for any Black Market and a 0.07% chance specifically for a Dissolver paint finish.
  • For Accelerator Crates, the overall Black Market drop rate was 1% with Rates being 0.11% apiece.
  • In the latest Golden Pumpkin ‘20, Psyonix listed a 1% chance for any Black Market item.

So on average, you'd need to open between 100-200 Crates just for a single Black Market item drop!

Community Findings Support Low Odds

Fan spreadsheets tracking thousands of Crate openings over the years have found drop rates consistent with Psyonix's published numbers.

For example, one analysis of 50,000 Accelerator Crate openings recorded only 500 Black Market items. Another for Player's Choice hit a Black Market every 100 Crates opened on average.

The immutable consensus is Black Markets truly have sub-1% drop rates, cementing their status as the rarest prestige items in Rocket League.

Trading Ups Odds Slightly

An alternative method is trading up 5 items of the same rarity tier for a random prize of the next highest tier. This offers marginally better odds than Crates alone.

Examples of estimated trading up Black Market rates include a 2-3% chance from Exotic to Black Market and 5-7% from Import to Black Market.

But the grind and resource investment to amass enough tradeable items of the same tier remains immense, only slightly tilting the odds in your favor overall.

Black Markets Remain a Gamble

Whether through Crates, Blueprints, or trading, the reality is that Black Market drops will continue evading most players due to the miniscule hit rates backed by concrete data.

While some dedicated traders or lucky few may stride away with paint finishes like Dissolver or Hex Tide, Black Markets can only be obtained through perseverance, patience, and no small amount of luck in Rocket League's high-risk, high-reward loot system.